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Prediction for CME (2024-01-05T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-05T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28485/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Bright CME in the SE with the source is likely a significant eruption just SE of AR 3536 (N06E23) seen in AIA and SUVI 304 starting at 2024-01-05T00:20Z, with an EUV wave seen in AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-08T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 8.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40106
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Jan 2024, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2024  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 008 
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2024  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 010 
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2024  10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 016

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 02:00 UTC on January 05, shows a possible glancing blow on January 08.

Lead Time: 67.73 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-01-05T16:16Z

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